Illustration: Lu Ting/GT



Suddenly, it seems like expats are leaving Shanghai in greater numbers. Lured to other job postings, being repatriated by their company or just arbitrarily deciding that it's time to return home.

Expat departures have always been a feature of the Shanghai landscape. The departing all-you-can-eat Teppanyaki Brunch for friends and colleagues is so much of a cliché here that, between 2008 and 2012 (arguably the years of "peak expat" in China) I found myself at two or three such occasions nearly every week - only vaguely aware of whose pending arrival or departure was actually being celebrated. 

Anecdotally, my contacts in Shanghai's real estate, finance and F&B industries confirm that, in recent years and months, there has been a slow and steady drift of foreign residents outwards. Business from foreign clients is down, and those enterprises that happen to be thriving have seen their local market shift radically from expense-account expats to wealthy local residents. 

Bars and restaurants that used to be jam-packed with foreigners are seeing far greater numbers of young Shanghainese ready and willing to take their place. One pub owner I know attributes this change to the successful adoption of Shanghai's anti-smoking laws, which have brought in more Chinese women, more local families and a younger and more health-conscious Chinese clientele than the usual foreigners with failing kidneys.

Among those expats who are leaving, many have expressed their concerns about Shanghai's air quality, traffic congestion and other cultural differences and/or barriers. Many can't afford Shanghai's rapidly and upwardly spiraling cost of living, either. There is the feeling that, as Shanghai's rent and food expenses quickly rise to match or exceed Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, the sacrifices needed to remain in Shanghai cannot be justified for anyone who is not an executive.

There is also evidence to suggest that foreign language students are having second thoughts about living in China's most international city. Masha, a recent graduate of Shanghai Jiao Tong University's prestigious IMBA partnership program, confessed to me that she will not pursue a job in Shanghai because she is scared off by the high cost of living and the competitiveness of Shanghai's job market.

"On top of everything else, my Chinese is terrible because of the amount of English and other European languages spoken in Shanghai," she complained. Masha is now considering a smaller, more remote province in China, where her skills are more marketable and the opportunity to polish her Putonghua more frequent.

At present, no less than three of my good friends and colleagues feel that they have no choice but to also leave Shanghai within the next year or so. These are dynamic, bilingual people at the peak of their careers, yet all three share the same problem: they will each turn 60 year-old this year and thus fall afoul of China's new restrictive parameters against issuing visas to foreign seniors.

Privately, they have expressed some relief about their pseudo-retirement and agree that China desperately needs younger, fresher professional talent to take over their leadership roles. But they also worry about the lack of peer mentorship that is required for such a transition.

While Shanghai grows more expensive and more gentrified, it has lost a lot of its old charm and quirkiness that used to make it stand apart from other Asian megalopolises. Old lane housing, wet markets, outdoor food stalls ad even entire bar streets have all steadily disappeared, relocated, or been gentrified beyond recognition in the name of progress.

This isn't to suggest that fewer foreigners will visit Shanghai. On the contrary, tourism numbers are on the rise. But it does lend credence to the idea that fewer expats will be rooting down here, which in turn reduces their unique contributions to the city's development.

Nor does this mean that they are all fleeing China. Many are simply relocating to Nanjing, Tianjin, Chengdu and other more affordable, cleaner and less-crowded Chinese cities. Shanghai has always drawn inspiration from the outside world, and yet, this outside influence now puts Shanghai at risk of becoming just another big, busy, expensive urban megalopolis.

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